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Modi Trails in Key State Poll as India's Covid-19 Crisis Worsens - Bloomberg

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is trailing in a key state election that is seen as a test of his popularity and an indication of whether the backlash over his government’s mishandling of the country’s Covid-19 emergency will hurt him at the ballot box.

In West Bengal, incumbent Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress was ahead in 203 seats, while Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party was leading in 81, according to initial trends posted on the website of Election Commission of India. The BJP was leading in the northeastern state of Assam. In southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, Modi’s opponents were ahead, while in the federally-controlled territory of Puducherry, there was no clear trend yet.

World’s Biggest Covid Crisis Threatens Modi’s Grip on India

The coronavirus pandemic has overshadowed the five assembly elections, and Modi is facing growing criticism over his decision to continue campaigning in front of huge crowds in the battleground state of West Bengal as infections were spiraling.

“As three strongly anti-BJP regional leaders have emerged victorious, they are likely to be the nucleus of the opposition challenge to Modi in the months ahead as he battles the backlash to his mismanagement of the Covid crisis,” said Arati Jerath, a New Delhi-based author and political analyst. The results weaken the government and indicate there are “huge political and constitutional challenges ahead for Modi.”

India’s fierce second wave has overwhelmed the nation’s underfunded health system, with infections topping 400,000 on Saturday in another global record and hospitals running out of beds, oxygen and medical supplies. The death toll continues to mount and images of crematoriums working non-stop have flooded newspapers, television and social media.

Raising Alarm

Sunday’s vote count comes a day after 12 patients including one senior doctor died when a hospital in the capital New Delhi ran out of oxygen -- the third such incident in the last 10 days -- after sending out desperate calls for help hours earlier.

“We have been raising this kind of alarm to the government, because it is an ongoing situation that is worsening everyday,” Sudhanshu Bankata, the executive director of the Batra Hospital, said by phone.

Delhi’s Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said Saturday his administration had told both the courts and the federal government that the state required 976 metric tonnes of oxygen per day but had only been allotted 490 metric tonnes.

“Then how are things supposed to work out?” Kejriwal said in a statement Saturday. “Delhi needs oxygen.”

How India’s Vaccine Drive Crumbled and Left a Country in Chaos

The BJP used these elections to try to expand its footprint in the country’s east and south. The lone victory for his party in Assam, where a religion-based citizenship act is a major issue, could further embolden the government to implement the controversial law across the country.

In West Bengal it was on a war footing to try and unseat Modi’s main challenger Banerjee, who has been outspoken over the prime minister’s pro-Hindu agenda.

The main opposition Congress party -- which ruled India for decades -- failed to win back either Assam or Kerala, posing a major challenge to its operations, said Sandeep Shastri, a political analyst and vice-chancellor at the Jagran Lakecity University at Bhopal. “The party would gradually lose its position as a nucleus of the anti-BJP political force and Rahul Gandhi’s role will surely come under fire,” he said, referring to the party’s former president and the son of the late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi.

(Updates with new poll figures in second paragraph, analyst comment in fourth paragraph)

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